让你激灵而醒的122条关于经济和投资的“真相”,读完以后醍醐灌顶

发表于 讨论求助 2018-09-25 15:16:41

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文|摩根∙豪塞尔    来源:扑克投资家(ID:puoketrader) 


1. 嘴上说“别人恐惧时我要贪婪”简单,要变成真正的行动就难得多。


2.大多数人说想成为千万富翁时,他们真正想表达的意思其实是“我想挥霍100万美元”,而这样的想法与真正的千万富翁恰好背道而驰。


3.99%提到“完美风暴”之处都应该被“大事不好”取代。(注:完美风暴指的是,独立发生时没有危险性,但一并发生时会带来灾难性后果的事件组合。)


4.2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、美国普林斯顿大学经济学教授丹尼尔∙卡内曼的畅销书《思考,快与慢》是这样开篇的,“写这本书的前提是,认识他人的错误要比认识自己的错误容易得多。”这应该成为每一位市场评论员的座右铭。


5.杰西∙利弗莫尔是美国资本市场的传奇人物,被称为“百年美股第一人”,他写道:“我在投资中获得的主要人生经验就是:利己主义是地球上最强大的力量,能让人们拥抱和捍卫任何东西。”


6.经济学博士、理财专栏作者埃里克∙弗尔肯斯坦说:“在职业网球赛中,80%的得分点可以被运动员接住,而在业余比赛中,80%是接不住的。同样的事情也发生在摔跤、国际象棋,以及投资领域:刚入行的人应该专注于怎样规避错误,经验老道的人才应该一心扑在做出伟大成就的事情上。


7.“他预测到了发生在2008年的经济危机”和“他预测到了很多经济危机,其中的一个发生在2008年”之间是有区别的。对投资者进行褒奖的时候,要记住这种区别很重要。


8.美盛集团旗下百骏财务管理高级副总裁迪恩∙威廉姆斯曾经写道:“对预测准度的信心会随着信息量的增加而上升。但是呢,说到预测的准确性,嘿嘿,还是那个水平。


9.财富是相对的。正如喜剧演员克里斯∙洛克所说:“如果哪天比尔∙盖茨一觉醒来,发现自己的钱变得跟奥普拉那么“多”了,他恨不得马上就跳下楼去。”


10.据盖洛普咨询公司统计,去年只有7%的美国人知道股票上涨了32%。有三分之一的人认为市场不是跌就是持平。股市下跌时,尽人皆知;但牛市可是悄悄滴进村、打枪滴不要。


11.美盛集团旗下百骏财务管理高级副总裁迪恩∙威廉姆斯曾指出,“专业性确实了不起,但也有很坏的副作用:它往往让人们无法接受新想法。”有些顶级投资者并没有正规的金融背景——这倒大大帮助了他们。


12.英国《金融时报》曾写道,“2008年,那时候体育界最受尊敬的人物大概要数泰格∙伍兹、兰斯∙阿姆斯特朗,和奥斯卡∙皮斯托瑞斯这三个人了,”结果他们都瞬间跌落神坛;在投资领域,相同的事情照样发生。请务必谨慎选择自己的榜样。


泰格∙伍兹:美国著名高尔夫球手,被公认为史上最成功的高尔夫球手之一。2009年11月28日伍兹的一次车祸,在短短的几周内,引出了多达十几位的情人队伍,舆论哗然。


兰斯∙阿姆斯特朗:美国职业自行车运动员。2012年8月23日,美国反兴奋剂机构宣布剥夺深陷兴奋剂丑闻的[1]  兰斯∙阿姆斯特朗七个环法自行车赛冠军头衔,并且终身禁赛。


奥斯卡∙皮斯托瑞斯:南非残奥运动员。残疾人100米、200米和400米短跑世界纪录的保持者。被称之为现实版“阿甘”、“刀锋战士”、“世界上跑得最快的无腿人”,残奥会上的博尔特。2013年2月14日,皮斯托瑞斯在家中枪杀其女友。


13.金融经济史传记、金融科普作家威廉 J. 伯恩斯坦 曾回忆投资者Ralph Wagoner解释市场是怎样运作的:“他把股票市场比作成纽约市的一条狗,拴着一条很长的链子,左奔右突,几乎没有约束。狗主人从哥仑布圆环广场走来,穿过中央公园,要去大都会博物馆。在任何时候,都无法预测狗狗会突然往哪个方向冲过去。但是,如果从整个路程来看,我们就会很清楚,狗主人带着狗狗以平均3英里的时速向东北方向行进。令人惊讶的是,几乎所有的市场参与者,无论大小,似乎都把目光放在了狗身上,而不是主人身上。”(注:Bill Bernstein原名为William J. Bernstein。关于Ralph Wagoner尚无详细资料。)


14.《简单财富,躲不掉的财富》作者尼克∙默里曾经说过:“市场中的时机问题其实就是一个傻瓜游戏,而你投入到市场上的时间是你最大的自然优势。”下次你被迫清仓套现时,记住这一点。


15.经济学家、金融评论员威廉∙西德曼*曾说,“你永远都不会知道美国公众会做什么,但你很清楚,他们要么不做,一做就马上一哄而上。”记住,变化总是猝不及防。(注:Bill Seidman原名为William Seidman。)


16.拿破仑对军事天才的定义是:“当周围的人都疯了的时候,他还能照常做事的人。”投资亦然。


17.被称为“百年美股第一人”的资本市场传奇人物杰西∙利弗莫尔写道:“在我看来,大多数人,无论是身处牛市还是熊市,当他们对的时候,也一定是由于错误的原因。”


18. 投资者坚持认为,股票的公道价格一定要高于他们已经支付了的价格。这是最普遍、最危险的偏见之一。“人们没有得到他们想要的,或者他们从市场上期待得到什么;他们得到的,都是他们活该得到的,” 金融通讯《每日结算》的创始人、财经作家比尔∙邦纳写道。


19.《华尔街日报》专栏作家杰森∙茨威格写道:“那些短期听起来最棒的建议,从长期来看都是最危险的。”


20.亿万富翁、全球最大的对冲基金桥水联合基金的创始人兼CEO雷∙达里奥经说过,“越是觉得自己知道得多,就越会变得封闭保守。”下回你对什么事情确定无疑的时候,记得多多重复这句话。


21.每当经济衰退、总统大选,以及美联储政策会议召开期间,人们就会对自己知之甚少的事情变得坚定不移。


22.“只有当市场崩溃时,进行买入和持有的操作才能起大作用。而实际上,市场上升时,买入和持有要容易得多,” 里萨兹财富管理公司机构资产管理部主任本∙卡尔森说。


23.多项研究表明,人们更喜欢那些信心满满、滔滔不绝的权威人士,而不是那些谨慎少言却正确的专家。既然这样,权威人士当然就乐此不疲了。


24.据摩根大通统计,自1980年以来,40%的股票都曾遭遇“灾难性的损失”,——意味着这些股票至少下跌了70%,并且再也没有恢复。


25.前纽约证券交易所主席约翰∙里德曾经写道,“当你初次接触某个陌生领域,看起来似乎要记住无数无数无数的东西。其实根本没必要。真正该做的,是找出足以左右这个领域最核心的原理问题——一般也就三到十二个。那些你觉得必须记住的东西,不过是核心原理的不同组合而已。”当你被复杂的财务公式搞得痛不欲生时,想想这句话就够了。


26.《格兰特利率观察家》杂志主编吉姆∙格兰特说:“成功的投资就是让人们同意你的观点……多晚都不怕。”


27.呆伯特企管漫画作者史考特∙亚当斯写道:“一个有着灵活日程安排、普通社会资源的常人,要比一个拥有一切却独独没有灵活日程安排的富人快乐得多。”寻找幸福的第一步,就是不断努力使自己的日程安排处于控制之中。


28.据全球第二大基金管理公司美国先锋集团,在2010年之前的20年中,有高达72%的以标普500指数作为基准的指标基金,都跑输了标普500指数。所以嘛,什么“职业投资人、专业投资者”的说法,都是狗屁。


29.“如果你的投资期限足够长,仓位大小又比较合适的,就根本不要跟蠢蛋们争辩,直接打赌就好,” 美国红鹰财富管理公司顾问布鲁斯∙查德威克写道。


30.Google统计显示,2010-2011年间,搜索“二次探底”高达1080万次。可惜的是,所谓“二次探底”其实压根就没出现过。但2006-2007年间,几乎没有人提到“金融崩盘”。它却实实在在滴来了。类似的故事,几乎每年都可以讲一遍。


31.彭博新闻社报道,2011年底,华尔街分析师从标普500中筛选出50个表现最差的股票;而恰恰是这个50个股票,在接下来的一年中,超过标普500指数7个百分点。


32.“富贵不是大买或大卖之中求来的,而是通过稳扎稳打获得的,” 被称为“百年美股第一人”的资本市场传奇人物杰西∙利弗莫尔说。


33.一方面,投资者总想着要相信某人,另一方面,预言家总得想法活下去吧。那么好了,这两群人中,指定有一群会大失所望的。我想你知道我说的是哪一群吧。


34.在一项针对1000名成年美国人的调查中,问他们:“一万亿是由多少个百万组成的?”79%的人给出的答案不正确,或者根本不知道。在讨论重大的财务问题时,千万要牢记这一点。


35. 在去年的伯哈公司股东大会上,巴老爷子说,在他的职业生涯中,他大概持有过400-500只股票,但他大部分钱都是在其中的10只股票上赚来的。这太常见了:多数成功的投资往往来自其中很小的一个比例。


36.一直以来,华尔街总巴不得他们的收益远远超出自己的预期。对市场的预期,华尔街也一样是爱恨交加。


37.全球最大上市基金管理公司富兰克林∙邓普顿公司做过一项调查,2009年,标普500上涨27%,——这是多么不平凡的一年啊。但是!竟然有66%的投资者认为那一年是下跌的!看看,主观感知跟现实真是差之千里啊。


38.正如美国最具影响力的预测专家之一、统计学专家纳特∙西尔弗所写的,“当我们对某种可能性不熟悉的时候,我们甚至连想都不会去想它。”最大的风险永远都是那些没人谈论、没人思考,更没人为之做准备的事情。就因为这样,才会带来重重风险。


39.下一场经济大衰退是决不会跟上次一样的。


40.自1871年以来,在40%的年份里,股票市场不是上涨就是下跌,幅度都超过20%。所以说,无论是一派繁荣昌盛,还是一眼望去满目疮痍,都再正常不过了。


41.常言说得好啊:“每月都存点小钱,到了年底你一定惊讶于自己——还是只有那么少的钱。”


42.英国经济学家、现代经济学最有影响的经济学家之一、《就业、利息和货币通论》作者凯恩斯曾经写道,“投机者是对所知事物的冒险,投资者则是对未知事物的冒险。从这个意义上来说,做投机者要比做投资者安全多了。”


43.“历史不是慢慢往前爬的,而是跳跃式的”,纽约大学特聘教授、《随机致富的傻瓜》和《黑天鹅》作者纳西姆∙塔勒布写道。改变世界的大事——比如暗杀总统、恐怖袭击、医学突破,以及企业破产——都是在一夜之间发生的。


44.我们对金融历史的记忆似乎也就只能上溯个十来年。”常言道 “时间可以冲淡一切,”它也可以抹去许许多多的惨痛教训。


45.亲,你真的没有义务天天盯着财经新闻看个没完没了。就算你真这么做了,你也没有义务把这些新闻当真事儿。


46.最最常见的、普通的公司——比如牙膏、食品、螺丝之类的——往往能够成为最佳的长期投资对象。那些最有创新意义的,也不乏最差的。


47.盖洛普咨询公司2011年一项民调显示,34%的美国人表示黄金是最佳的长期投资对象,而只有17%的人表示股票才是。自那时以来,股票上涨了87%,而黄金却下跌了35%。


48.《漫步华尔街》作者、经济学家伯顿∙马尔基尔统计,1970-2012年间,有57只共同基金的表现弱于标普500指数。这一统计数字真正令人震惊的地方在于,这57家基金收益水平如此糟糕,却可以持续运营40年之久。看看,人们对美好结果的期待常常会战胜现实。


49.从长远来看,大多数我们认为重要的财经新闻其实并不重要。《大西洋月刊》专栏作者德雷克∙汤普森曾经写道:“过去两年间,我写了好几百篇关于经济的文章。但实际上,我说一千道一万,只用一句话就可以概括:事情在变好,——慢慢滴。”


50.1928-2013年间,美国股市大盘指数上涨了2000倍,但同样这一期间,其市值也损失了20%,比之前扩大了20倍。人们如果知道市场波动是多么常见,就不会对波动那么害怕了。


51.“证据很确凿,” 2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、美国普林斯顿大学经济学教授丹尼尔∙卡内曼写道,“有相当的大比例,人们发财更多的是靠运气,而不是靠本事。”


52.学识和谦卑之间有着很强的正相关性。那些最优秀的投资者很清楚自己所知不多。


53.这个世界上根本就没有任何一个人,能知道市场短期内会有怎样的表现。


54.大多数人如果不再纠结于国会、美联储,以及总统的举动,而是专注于自己的财务管理不善,那么他们的生活会变得要比现在好得多。


55.事后再看,每个人都可以预见金融危机的到来。但在现实里的2007年中之前,说金融危机要来,绝对是个极其边缘的观点。下一场次危机还将是同样的路数(他们一直都是这么干的)。


56. 1909年,美国共有272家汽车企业。由于合并、出局,最后有三家脱颖而出。而这三家,又有两家最终落得个破产的下场。锁定前景无限的趋势,跟投资成功完全是两码子事。


57.一个在电视上的露面的次数越多,其预言成真的可能性就越低。(对此,加州大学伯克利分校心理学家菲利普∙泰洛克有数据支撑。)


58.《牛市:美国繁荣与萧条的历史(1982-2004)》作者、财经记者玛吉∙梅赫曾写道:“人类讨厌随机,市场抗拒预言。”这句话可以解释大多数人在股市里的糟糕体验。


59.“大家都是靠猜的,只不过我们有些数学爱好者而已,” 里萨兹财富管理公司CEO、联合创始人乔什∙布朗写道。


60.每当你觉得自己有个好主意的时候,就赶紧去找个跟你意见不一的人聊聊吧。即便是最坏的结果,你仍可以不同意他们的观点。更多的时候,是你会得到一个新的看问题的角度。要像对待鼠疫一样,与已有偏见进行斗争。


61.1923年,9位美国最成功的企业家在芝加哥齐聚一堂。里萨兹财富管理公司CEO、联合创始人乔什∙布朗写道:短短25年之内,所有这9位都相继走到了职业生涯或生命的尽头:


美国最大的钢铁企业总裁查尔斯∙施瓦布,死于破产;

最大的公用事业公司总裁塞缪尔∙英萨尔,死于身无分文;

最大的天然气公司总裁霍华德∙霍布森,罹患精神崩溃,在一家秘密精神病院终结生命;

纽约证券交易所总裁理查德∙惠特尼,刚刚刑满释放;

银行总裁利恩∙费拉沙,自杀身亡;

世界最大粮食公司董事长阿萨.卡顿,也死于身无分文;

全球最伟大的垄断企业老板、“火柴大王”伊瓦∙克鲁格,也自杀身亡;

哈丁总统的内阁成员阿尔巴∙佛耳,刚刚获特赦好可以死在家中。


62.要尽可能多地通过他人(的经历)来学习投资失误。其他人已经在书中犯下了每一个失误。你可以通过研究投资失败案例而学到更多,而不是通过那些赫赫有名的投资成功案例。


63.金融通讯《每日结算》的创始人、财经作家比尔∙邦纳说,有两种方式可以用来思考金钱能买到什么:一个就是生活水平,这个可以用美元来衡量;另外一个是生活质量,这个用美元根本无法衡量。


64.如果你试图去预测未来,——不管是市场将向哪个方向走、宏观经济如何运行,或者你自己是否会被提升,——都请先考虑有多大的可能性,而不是多大的确定性。正如人们所说,只有死亡和纳税,是这条规则的唯一例外。


65.在你想打败市场之前,千万要注意别被市场先打败。


66.民调显示,过去25年来,美国人一直说国家宏观经济处于衰退状态中。哪怕是面对着明显的进步,悲观情绪依然是常态。


67.如果大学里是心理学系和历史系在讲授金融课程,那金融业的情况会比现在好很多。


68.前美国财政部经济学家、俄勒冈大学教授蒂姆∙杜依说过,“只要人们还在要孩子、资本还在贬值、技术还在发展,以及人们的品位和偏好还在变化,那么,就会蕴藏着一个强大的增长动力;几乎可以100%肯定的是,在任何一个治理良好的经济体中,这种动力都会自动释放出来。”


69.对成功的投资者进行研究,你会发现他们有一个共同点:都是心理学大师。他们控制不了市场,但他们可以完全控制两耳之间的灰色物质:大脑皮层。


70.金融学教科书将“风险”被定义为短期波动。但在现实世界中,风险是赚取低回报的,这往往是由于试图避免短期波动造成的。


71.关于市场随机性的问题,要牢记纽约大学特聘教授、《随机致富的傻瓜》和《黑天鹅》作者纳西姆∙塔勒布说过的话:“摇骰子,你就知道结果出现特定一面的概率为1/6。那好,你算算风险大小吧。不过,在股票市场,这样的计算没有鸡毛用处——你根本就不知道股市这个骰子到底有多少面!”


72.1998年,标普500上涨了27%。不过,有五只股票——戴尔、朗讯、微软、辉瑞,以及沃尔玛——就足足占据这一涨幅的一半。即使是在多元化的投资组合中,也依然会有很高的集中度。


73. 有传言说至少有一家知名企业资不抵债、并进行财务造假,这种可能性非常之高。


74.《客户的游艇在哪里?》是一本写于1940年的书,都老掉牙了。但大多数人到现在还没有意识到,股票经纪人根本就没有把他们的最大利益放在肝上。


75.认知心理学家们有一个理论叫“逆火效应”——当所展示的信息跟自己的观点正好相反时,你除了反驳挑战者外,还会加倍坚定自己的观点。候选人一旦被竞争对手攻击,选民往往会变得更加支持。在投资领域也一样,如果一家公司面临着严厉的批评,其股东往往会变成公司的死忠支持者,而支持的理由则与公司业绩没有鸡毛关系。


76.“在金融领域,明明是好的想法,也会因为竞争过程中的一句‘你能否超越这个?’而变了味儿,”《格兰特利率观察家》杂志主编吉姆∙格兰特曾如此表示。一项投资如果借用了杠杆的,哪怕再精明也将很快变得糟糕不已。


77.记住沃顿商学院教授杰里米∙西格尔所说的:“如果以20年时间为一个阶段,在股市中你绝不会损失一毛钱,但如果你买的是国债,那你的投资组合中,至少有一半已经被你糟蹋了(剔除通货膨胀后)。那到底哪个才是风险更高的资产呢?”


78.巴老爷子的最佳回报,是在市场竞争程度没那么激烈的时候实现的。这就很让人怀疑了,是不是任-何-人都有机会比肩他那50年之久的最高纪录。


79.2013年,有25个对冲基金经理将212亿美元的收益带回了家,他们的平均收益率为9.1%;对比之下,如果你操作指数基金,则收益率为32.4%。这是个好买卖,值得好好干,还不用投资太多。


80.美国是全球唯一的适龄劳动人口以合理的速度增长的主要经济体。这可能是下半个世纪最重要的经济变量。


81.大多数投资者都不知道自己的实际表现。德国曼海姆大学两位教授马库斯∙格拉泽和马丁∙韦伯,曾经问过投资者们如何看待自己在市场上的表现,然后又对比了他们的业务报表。“自我评价与实际表现之间的相关性,嘿嘿,跟本没有鸡毛区别,”两位教授们总结道。


82.美国前财政部长、哈佛大学前校长劳伦斯∙萨默斯表示,经济学中“我教的几乎所有的一切”都因为金融危机而遭到重重质疑。


83.被问及金融危机后美国经济的表现,巴老爷子的黄金搭档查理∙芒格曾说,“如果你不稀里糊涂的,我就认为你还没搞明白。”


84.几乎可以肯定滴说,宏观经济的运行表现与股市收益之间没有鸡毛关系。全球第二大基金管理公司美国先锋集团认为,在对未来股票收益率的预测方面,降雨量实际上是比GDP增长更好的预测因子。(这两个因素总比没有解释好那么一丢丢吧)。


85.你能够控制的是如何配置投资组合、接受什么样的教育、聆听哪些话语,以及读什么书、关注哪些论据,甚至对特定事件做出怎样的回应。但你不能控制的是美联储会做什么、国会制定什么法律、下一份就业报告的好坏,以及一家公司的盈利是否会超过预期。专注于前者,尽量少搭理后者。


86.一个公司如果总是专注于自己股票的价格,那么终将失去所有客户。相反的是,如果一个公司总是专注于自己的客户,那么终将会推高自己的股票价格。这听起来多简单啊,却总被管理者抛之脑后。


87.德国投行德利佳华公司曾研究过分析师对利率的预测,并掉过头来与事后真正的利率做过比较,他们发现,预测和现实二者之间存在的差距简直可以堪称“完美”。“在告诉我们已经发生的事情方面,分析师简直太牛逼了;但在告诉我们将来会发生什么事情方面,分析师几乎没有卵用”,该投行写道。误把后视镜当成望远镜,不要太稀松平常啊。


88.“成功是败事之师,”比尔∙盖茨曾经如此表示。“因为成功会误导聪明人认为他们不会输。”


89.经典投资著作《安全边际》作者、全球最神秘、最成功对冲基金之一的Baupost公司总裁塞斯∙克拉曼说,“宏观忧虑就像电视里的足球解说员。每个人都能说得头头是道,却也可能意味着他们当中没有一个能够踢好球。


90.多项学术研究成果表明,交易最频繁的人所赚取的回报却是最低的。记住帕斯卡尔的至理名言:“人们的一切痛苦都源于不能独自坐在安静的房间里。”


91.即便是世界上最好的公司,配有最最最聪明的管理层,如果以错误的价格买入,也可能是一笔糟糕透顶的投资。


92.未来50年中,将有7到10次经济衰退。衰退真来时,你可别表现出一副很吃惊的样子哟。


93.投资计划不会因为其高难度或超复杂而得到回馈。简单的策略才能带来卓越回报。


94.国家总统对宏观经济的影响要比人们想象的小得多滴多。


95.不管你认为退休后需要多少钱,都要在这个数字的基础上翻一番。翻一番后的数字,才更加接近你现实所需。


96.对许多人而言,房子实际上是巨大的负债,却伪装成了安全资产的样子。


97.如果以三年时间做节点,股票的最佳买入时期就是美国大萧条时期的那三年。次佳时期,就是刚走没多远的从2009年开始的那三年,——其时,美国经济在彻底崩溃中挣扎不已。最高的收益都始于大多数人认为最大的损失无可避免时。


98.关于社会进步,要牢记巴老爷子所说:“先有创新者,再有模仿者,再后面的就都是白痴了。”


99.关于真理,美国小说家马克∙吐温是这么说的:“谎言都已经绕着地球跑半圈了,真理还他妈的在那儿系鞋带呢。”


100.关于信息,美国第三大道管理公司创始人、联席首席投资官马蒂∙惠特曼曾说:“很少有三个或四个以上的变量真正发挥作用的。其他一切都是扯淡。”


101.美国18至64岁的人群中,2010年的平均就医人数从2001年的4.8人下降到的3.9人。一方面是因为经济疲软,另一方面是由于医药费用不断上涨。但这件事给人一个重要的启示:你永远不能准确推断人们的行为——哪怕是像看医生这样重要的事情。人的行为变化无常啊。


102.彭博新闻社报道,自去年7月以来,中国老年人可以起诉不“常回家看看”的子女。看看,为了应对人口老龄化,政府不惜采取严厉措施。


103.有人曾经问巴老爷子,怎样才能成为一个更好的投资者。老爷子把手指向桌上的一大摞年度报告,“这玩意儿每天都读个500页,”他继续补充道:“所谓知识就是这样发挥作用的。要不断积累,跟好像复利计算一样。你们所有人都能做到这点,但我敢保证,你们中没有几个人真会去做。”


104.如果美国2007年-2014年的新生儿和2000年-2007年一样多的话,那么今天将多出来230万个孩子。这将对未来数十年的经济产生巨大影响。


105.美国国会预算办公室2003年还曾预测,到2013年美国联邦债务将减少10万亿美元。——预测(错得)如此离谱,但人们还是列队迎接、翘首以待呢。

106.据《华尔街日报》2010年的报道,“股东回报率每下降1%,支付给CEO们的薪酬就会平均提高0.02%。”


107.美联储一项研究显示,自1994年以来,美联储宣布取消利率政策之前三天的股市回报率,都是平淡无奇的。


108.1989年,美国七大银行的CEO平均年收入是普通家庭年收入的100倍。到2007年,已达500倍以上。至2008年底,这些银行中已有好几家都TMD死翘翘了。


109.经济增长的两大驱动因素:人口增长和生产率提升。其他的一切因素,都不过是这两大驱动因素的中某个作用力而已。


110.关于投资,你需要问自己的最重要问题是:“我要投资多长时间?”你如何回答这个问题,将改变你看待一切事物的角度。


111.在投资行为中,“啥都不做”是最强有力——也是最未充分利用的策略。脑光儿一热就往上冲,结果往往就是难以想象的财富从投资者手中转移到了经纪人身上。


112.2002年至2012年间,苹果股价增长超过6000%,但在48%的交易日中都有所下降。成功从来就不是一条笔直向上的路。


113.人们很容易误把运气当成功。前世界首富、美国石油大亨保罗∙格蒂说过,成功的关键是:1)早起;2)苦干;3)走狗屎运。


114.加拿大专栏作家、风险与决策方面的畅销书作者丹∙加德纳写道:“没有人能够提前预见鸡毛小事(或是建军伟业这样的大事),会带来怎样的后果;单凭这一点来说,未来将永远充满意外。”


115.我曾向2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、美国普林斯顿大学经济学教授丹尼尔∙卡内曼请教,什么才是做出更好决策的关键因素,他回答说:“你得跟与你意见不同的人多聊聊,还得跟与你情绪状态不同的人多聊聊。”说得对错与否,你下次做投资决策之前试试这招吧。


116.《福布斯》美国400富豪榜中,没有任何一个被描述成“死硬唱空派”的。天生的乐观向上,不仅仅是健康所需,且十分必要。


117.美国经济学家、企业家、考尔斯委员会创建者阿尔弗雷德∙考尔斯,曾经仔细梳理过一位20世纪早期因成功预测价格走势而暴得大名的分析师,看他在《华尔街日报》发表的全部预测,得出的结论是:在长达30年的时间周期内,他所做的90个预测中,恰好有45个预测对了,45个预测错了。这比你想象得要普遍得多。


118.自从1900年以来,标普500的平均年回报率约为6.5%;但在其中的任何一年,最高收盘价与最低收盘价之间的平均差值为23%。牢牢记住这一点,下次要是有人给你解释市场为什么涨了或跌了多少的时候,你就明白到底是怎么回事了。他们啰里吧嗦半天,也不过是在解释为什么蛋蛋总是长在JJ下面。


119.你在投资上花费时间的长短,很可能是决定你投资收益好坏的最重要的单一因素。


120.理财经理的经验再丰富,也未必能够给你更多指导。可能在你的整个职业生涯,一直都无法超越市场表现。很多人都这样过了一辈子。


121.有一家对冲基金公司曾如此描述过自家的优势:“我们不持有任何苹果公司的股票,而其他所有的对冲基金都持有。”在投资过程中,这种简单、反向的思维方式是非常非常值得学习的。


122.有这样两个投资者:一位是麻省理工的火箭科学家,牛逼上天,高考状元、背诵圆周率小数点后5000位。每周都进行数次交易操作,总觉得自己眼光极准,一旦看好行情,就总想通过频繁地买进卖出来跑赢市场。


另一位呢,则是个如假包换的乡巴佬,根本没读过大学。他每月都存点钱,然后投进到低成本的指数基金里去,也不管收益高低。至于能不能打败市场,他才不关心呢。他只是想让市场变成他的忠实伴侣。


那么,问题来了:从长远来看,谁会做得更好?反正我是一直都赌后者。巴老爷子早就说过:“投资不是比赛,不是智商160就一定可以打败智商130。”成功的投资者都非常清楚自己的局限性,他们会保持冷静、恪守原则。而这些,正是你不可能掌握到的东西。



PUOKE 拓展阅读



英文原文:


A year ago I started writing whatI hoped would be a book called 500 Things you Need to know About Investing. Iwanted to outline my favorite quotes, stats, and lessons about investing.


I failed. I quickly realized theidea was long on ambition, short on planning.

But I made it to 122, and figuredit would be better in article form. Here it is.


1. Saying "I'll be greedywhen others are fearful" is easier than actually doing it.


2. When most people say they wantto be a millionaire, what they really mean is "I want to spend $1million," which is literally the opposite of being a millionaire.


3. "Some stuffhappened" should replace 99% of references to "it's a perfectstorm."


4. Daniel Kahneman's bookThinking Fast and Slow begins, "The premise of this book is that it iseasier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own." This should beevery market commentator's motto.


5. Blogger Jesse Livermorewrites, "My main life lesson from investing: self-interest is the mostpowerful force on earth, and can get people to embrace and defend almostanything."


6. As Erik Falkenstein says:"In expert tennis, 80% of the points are won, while in amateur tennis, 80%are lost. The same is true for wrestling, chess, and investing: Beginnersshould focus on avoiding mistakes, experts on making great moves."


7. There is a difference between,"He predicted the crash of 2008," and "He predicted crashes, oneof which happened to occur in 2008." It's important to know the differencewhen praising investors.


8. Investor Dean Williams oncewrote, "Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information thatgoes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same."


9. Wealth is relative. Ascomedian Chris Rock said, "If Bill Gates woke up with Oprah's money he'djump out the window."


10. Only 7% of Americans knowstocks rose 32% last year, according to Gallup. One-third believe the marketeither fell or stayed the same. Everyone is aware when markets fall; bullmarkets can go unnoticed.


11. Dean Williams once noted that"Expertise is great, but it has a bad side effect: It tends to create theinability to accept new ideas." Some of the world's best investors have noformal backgrounds in finance -- which helps them tremendously.


12. The Financial Times wrote,"In 2008 the three most admired personalities in sport were probably TigerWoods, Lance Armstrong and Oscar Pistorius." The same falls from gracehappen in investing. Chose your role models carefully.


13. Investor Ralph Wagoner onceexplained how markets work, recalled by Bill Bernstein: "He likens themarket to an excitable dog on a very long leash in New York City, dartingrandomly in every direction. The dog's owner is walking from Columbus Circle,through Central Park, to the Metropolitan Museum. At any one moment, there isno predicting which way the pooch will lurch. But in the long run, you knowhe's heading northeast at an average speed of three miles per hour. What isastonishing is that almost all of the market players, big and small, seem tohave their eye on the dog, and not the owner."


14. Investor Nick Murray oncesaid, "Timing the market is a fool's game, whereas time in the market isyour greatest natural advantage." Remember this the next time you'recompelled to cash out.


15. Bill Seidman once said,"You never know what the American public is going to do, but you know thatthey will do it all at once." Change is as rapid as it is unpredictable.


16. Napoleon's definition of amilitary genius was, "the man who can do the average thing when all thosearound him are going crazy." Same goes in investing.


17. Blogger Jesse Livermorewrites,"Most people, whether bull or bear, when they are right, are rightfor the wrong reason, in my opinion."


18. Investors anchor to the ideathat a fair price for a stock must be more than they paid for it. It's one ofthe most common, and dangerous, biases that exists. "People do not getwhat they want or what they expect from the markets; they get what theydeserve," writes Bill Bonner.


19. Jason Zweig writes, "Theadvice that sounds the best in the short run is always the most dangerous inthe long run."


20. Billionaire investor RayDalio once said, "The more you think you know, the more closed-mindedyou'll be." Repeat this line to yourself the next time you're certain ofsomething.


21. During recessions, elections,and Federal Reserve policy meetings, people become unshakably certain aboutthings they know very little about.


22. "Buy and hold only worksif you do both when markets crash. It's much easier to both buy and hold whenmarkets are rising," says Ben Carlson.


23. Several studies have shownthat people prefer a pundit who is confident to one who is accurate. Punditsare happy to oblige.


24. According to J.P. Morgan, 40%of stocks have suffered "catastrophic losses" since 1980, meaningthey fell at least 70% and never recovered.


25. John Reed once wrote,"When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorizea zillion things. You don't. What you need is to identify the core principles-- generally three to twelve of them -- that govern the field. The millionthings you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of thecore principles." Keep that in mind when getting frustrated overcomplicated financial formulas.


26. James Grant says,"Successful investing is about having people agree with you ...later."


27. Scott Adams writes, "Aperson with a flexible schedule and average resources will be happier than arich person who has everything except a flexible schedule. Step one in yoursearch for happiness is to continually work toward having control of yourschedule."


28. According to Vanguard, 72% ofmutual funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 underperformed the index over a20-year period ending in 2010. The phrase "professional investor" isa loose one.


29. "If your investmenthorizon is long enough and your position sizing is appropriate, you simplydon't argue with idiocy, you bet against it," writes Bruce Chadwick.


30. The phrase "double-diprecession" was mentioned 10.8 million times in 2010 and 2011, according toGoogle. It never came. There were virtually no mentions of "financialcollapse" in 2006 and 2007. It did come. A similar story can be toldvirtually every year.


31. According to Bloomberg, the50 stocks in the S&P 500 that Wall Street rated the lowest at the end of2011 outperformed the overall index by 7 percentage points over the followingyear.


32. "The big money is not inthe buying or the selling, but in the sitting," said Jesse Livermore.


33. Investors want to believe insomeone. Forecasters want to earn a living. One of those groups is going to bedisappointed. I think you know which.


34. In a poll of 1,000 Americanadults, asked, "How many millions are in a trillion?" 79% gave anincorrect answer or didn't know. Keep this in mind when debating largefinancial problems.


35. As last year's BerkshireHathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett said he has owned 400 to 500stocks during his career, and made most of his money on 10 of them. This iscommon: a large portion of investing success often comes from a tiny proportionof investments.


36. Wall Street consistentlyexpects earnings to beat expectations. It also loves oxymorons.


37. The S&P 500 gained 27% in2009 -- a phenomenal year. Yet 66% of investors thought it fell that year,according to a survey by Franklin Templeton. Perception and reality can bemiles apart.


38. As Nate Silver writes,"When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think aboutit." The biggest risk is always something that no one is talking about,thinking about, or preparing for. That's what makes it risky.

39. The next recession is neverlike the last one.


40. Since 1871, the market hasspent 40% of all years either rising or falling more than 20%. Roaring boomsand crushing busts are perfectly normal.


41. As the saying goes,"Save a little bit of money each month, and at the end of the year you'llbe surprised at how little you still have."


42. John Maynard Keynes oncewrote, "It is safer to be a speculator than an investor in the sense thata speculator is one who runs risks of which he is aware and an investor is onewho runs risks of which he is unaware."


43. "History doesn't crawl;it leaps," writes Nassim Taleb. Events that change the world --presidential assassinations, terrorist attacks, medical breakthroughs,bankruptcies -- can happen overnight.


44. Our memories of financialhistory seem to extend about a decade back. "Time heals all wounds,"the saying goes. It also erases many important lessons.


45. You are under no obligationto read or watch financial news. If you do, you are under no obligation to takeany of it seriously.


46. The most boring companies --toothpaste, food, bolts -- can make some of the best long-term investments. Themost innovative, some of the worst.


47. In a 2011 Gallup poll, 34% ofAmericans said gold was the best long-term investment, while 17% said stocks.Since then, stocks are up 87%, gold is down 35%. 


48. According to economist BurtonMalkiel, 57 equity mutual funds underperformed the S&P 500 from 1970 to2012. The shocking part of that statistic is that 57 funds could stay inbusiness for four decades while posting poor returns. Hope often triumphs overreality.


49. Most economic news that wethink is important doesn't matter in the long run. Derek Thompson of TheAtlantic once wrote, "I've written hundreds of articles about the economyin the last two years. But I think I can reduce those thousands of words to onesentence. Things got better, slowly."


50. A broad index of U.S. stocksincreased 2,000-fold between 1928 and 2013, but lost at least 20% of its value20 times during that period. People would be less scared of volatility if theyknew how common it was.


51. The "evidence isunequivocal," Daniel Kahneman writes, "there's a great deal more luckthan skill in people getting very rich."


52. There is a strong correlationbetween knowledge and humility. The best investors realize how little theyknow.


53. Not a single person in theworld knows what the market will do in the short run.


54. Most people would be betteroff if they stopped obsessing about Congress, the Federal Reserve, and thepresident, and focused on their own financial mismanagement.


55. In hindsight, everyone sawthe financial crisis coming. In reality, it was a fringe view before mid-2007.The next crisis will be the same (they all work like that).


56. There were 272 automobilecompanies in 1909. Through consolidation and failure, three emerged on top, twoof which went bankrupt. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment aretwo different things.


57. The more someone is on TV,the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. (University ofCalifornia, Berkeley psychologist Phil Tetlock has data on this).


58. Maggie Mahar once wrote that"men resist randomness, markets resist prophecy." Those six wordsexplain most people's bad experiences in the stock market.


59. "We're all justguessing, but some of us have fancier math," writes Josh Brown.


60. When you think you have agreat idea, go out of your way to talk with someone who disagrees with it. Atworst, you continue to disagree with them. More often, you'll gain valuableperspective. Fight confirmation bias like the plague.


61. In 1923, nine of the mostsuccessful U.S. businessmen met in Chicago. Josh Brown writes:

Within 25 years, all of thesegreat men had met a horrific end to their careers or their lives:

The president of the largeststeel company, Charles Schwab, died a bankrupt man; the president of thelargest utility company, Samuel Insull, died penniless; the president of thelargest gas company, Howard Hobson, suffered a mental breakdown, ending up inan insane asylum; the president of the New York Stock Exchange, RichardWhitney, had just been released from prison; the bank president, Leon Fraser,had taken his own life; the wheat speculator, Arthur Cutten, died penniless;the head of the world's greatest monopoly, Ivar Krueger the 'match king' alsohad taken his life; and the member of President Harding's cabinet, Albert Fall,had just been given a pardon from prison so that he could die at home.


62. Try to learn as manyinvesting mistakes as possible vicariously through others. Other people havemade every mistake in the book. You can learn more from studying the investingfailures than the investing greats.


63. Bill Bonner says there aretwo ways to think about what money buys. There's the standard of living, whichcan be measured in dollars, and there's the quality of your life, which can'tbe measured at all.


64. If you're going to try topredict the future -- whether it's where the market is heading, or what theeconomy is going to do, or whether you'll be promoted -- think in terms ofprobabilities, not certainties. Death and taxes, as they say, are the onlyexceptions to this rule.


65. Focus on not getting beat bythe market before you think about trying to beat it.


66. Polls show Americans for thelast 25 years have said the economy is in a state of decline. Pessimism in theface of advancement is the norm.


67. Finance would be better if itwas taught by the psychology and history departments at universities.


68. According to economist TimDuy, "As long as people have babies, capital depreciates, technologyevolves, and tastes and preferences change, there is a powerful underlyingimpetus for growth that is almost certain to reveal itself in any reasonably well-managedeconomy."


69. Study successful investors,and you'll notice a common denominator: they are masters of psychology. Theycan't control the market, but they have complete control over the gray matterbetween their ears.


70. In finance textbooks,"risk" is defined as short-term volatility. In the real world, riskis earning low returns, which is often caused by trying to avoid short-termvolatility.


71. Remember what Nassim Talebsays about randomness in markets: "If you roll dice, you know that theodds are one in six that the dice will come up on a particular side. So you cancalculate the risk. But, in the stock market, such computations are bull -- youdon't even know how many sides the dice have!"


72. The S&P 500 gained 27% in1998. But just five stocks -- Dell, Lucent, Microsoft, Pfizer, and Wal-Mart --accounted for more than half the gain. There can be huge concentration even ina diverse portfolio.


73. The odds that at least onewell-known company is insolvent and hiding behind fraudulent accounting arepretty high.


74. The book Where Are theCustomers' Yachts? was written in 1940, and most people still haven't figuredout that brokers don't have their best interest at heart.


75. Cognitive psychologists havea theory called "backfiring." When presented with information thatgoes against your viewpoints, you not only reject challengers, but double downon your view. Voters often view the candidate they support more favorably afterthe candidate is attacked by the other party. In investing, shareholders ofcompanies facing heavy criticism often become die-hard supporters for reasonstotally unrelated to the company's performance.


76. "In the financial world,good ideas become bad ideas through a competitive process of 'can you topthis?'" Jim Grant once said. A smart investment leveraged up with debtbecomes a bad investment very quickly.


77. Remember what Whartonprofessor Jeremy Siegel says: "You have never lost money in stocks overany 20-year period, but you have wiped out half your portfolio in bonds [afterinflation]. So which is the riskier asset?"


78. Warren Buffett's best returnswere achieved when markets were much less competitive. It's doubtful anyonewill ever match his 50-year record.


79. Twenty-five hedge fundmanagers took home $21.2 billion in 2013 for delivering an average performanceof 9.1%, versus the 32.4% you could have made in an index fund. It's a greatbusiness to work in -- not so much to invest in.


80. The United States is the onlymajor economy in which the working-age population is growing at a reasonablerate. This might be the most important economic variable of the nexthalf-century.


81. Most investors have no ideahow they actually perform. Markus Glaser and Martin Weber of the University ofMannheim asked investors how they thought they did in the market, and thenlooked at their brokerage statements. "The correlation between selfratings and actual performance is not distinguishable from zero," theyconcluded.


82. Harvard professor and formerTreasury Secretary Larry Summers says that "virtually everything Itaught" in economics was called into question by the financial crisis.


83. Asked about the economy'sperformance after the financial crisis, Charlie Munger said, "If you'renot confused, I don't think you understand."


84. There is virtually nocorrelation between what the economy is doing and stock market returns.According to Vanguard, rainfall is actually a better predictor of future stockreturns than GDP growth. (Both explain slightly more than nothing.)


85. You can control yourportfolio allocation, your own education, who you listen to, what you read,what evidence you pay attention to, and how you respond to certain events. Youcannot control what the Fed does, laws Congress sets, the next jobs report, orwhether a company will beat earnings estimates. Focus on the former; try toignore the latter.


86. Companies that focus on theirstock price will eventually lose their customers. Companies that focus on theircustomers will eventually boost their stock price. This is simple, butforgotten by countless managers.


87. Investment bank DresdnerKleinwort looked at analysts' predictions of interest rates, and compared thatwith what interest rates actually did in hindsight. It found an almost perfectlag. "Analysts are terribly good at telling us what has just happened butof little use in telling us what is going to happen in the future," thebank wrote. It's common to confuse the rearview mirror for the windshield.


88. Success is a lousyteacher," Bill Gates once said. "It seduces smart people intothinking they can't lose."


89. Investor Seth Klarman says,"Macro worries are like sports talk radio. Everyone has a good opinionwhich probably means that none of them are good."


90. Several academic studies haveshown that those who trade the most earn the lowest returns. Remember Pascal'swisdom: "All man's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quietroom alone."


91. The best company in the worldrun by the smartest management can be a terrible investment if purchased at thewrong price.


92. There will be seven to 10recessions over the next 50 years. Don't act surprised when they come.


93. No investment points areawarded for difficulty or complexity. Simple strategies can lead to outstandingreturns.


94. The president has much lessinfluence over the economy than people think.


95. However much money you thinkyou'll need for retirement, double it. Now you're closer to reality.


96. For many, a house is a largeliability masquerading as a safe asset.


97. The single best three-yearperiod to own stocks was during the Great Depression. Not far behind was thethree-year period starting in 2009, when the economy struggled in utter ruin.The biggest returns begin when most people think the biggest losses areinevitable.


98. Remember what Buffett saysabout progress: "First come the innovators, then come the imitators, thencome the idiots."


99. And what Mark Twain saysabout truth: "A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth isputting on its shoes."


100. And what Marty Whitman saysabout information: "Rarely do more than three or four variables reallycount. Everything else is noise."


101. Among Americans aged 18 to64, the average number of doctor visits decreased from 4.8 in 2001 to 3.9 in2010. This is partly because of the weak economy, and partly because of thegrowing cost of medicine, but it has an important takeaway: You can neverextrapolate behavior -- even for something as vital as seeing a doctor --indefinitely. Behaviors change.


102. Since last July, elderlyChinese can sue their children who don't visit often enough, according toBloomberg. Dealing with an aging population calls for drastic measures.


103. Someone once asked WarrenBuffett how to become a better investor. He pointed to a stack of annualreports. "Read 500 pages like this every day," he said. "That'show knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can doit, but I guarantee not many of you will do it."


104. If Americans had as manybabies from 2007 to 2014 as they did from 2000 to 2007, there would be 2.3million more kids today. That will affect the economy for decades to come.


105. The Congressional BudgetOffice's 2003 prediction of federal debt in the year 2013 was off by $10trillion. Forecasting is hard. But we still line up for it.


106. According to The Wall StreetJournal, in 2010, "for every 1% decrease in shareholder return, theaverage CEO was paid 0.02% more."


107. Since 1994, stock marketreturns are flat if the three days before the Federal Reserve announcesinterest rate policy are removed, according to a study by the Federal Reserve.


108. In 1989, the CEOs of theseven largest U.S. banks earned an average of 100 times what a typicalhousehold made. By 2007, more than 500 times. By 2008, several of those banksno longer existed.


109. Two things make an economygrow: population growth and productivity growth. Everything else is a functionof one of those two drivers.


110. The single most importantinvestment question you need to ask yourself is, "How long am I investingfor?" How you answer it can change your perspective on everything.


111. "Do nothing" arethe two most powerful -- and underused -- words in investing. The urge to acthas transferred an inconceivable amount of wealth from investors to brokers.


112. Apple increased more than6,000% from 2002 to 2012, but declined on 48% of all trading days. It is nevera straight path up.


113. It's easy to mistake luckfor success. J. Paul Getty said, the key to success is: 1) rise early, 2) workhard, 3) strike oil.


114. Dan Gardner writes, "Noone can foresee the consequences of trivia and accident, and for that reasonalone, the future will forever be filled with surprises."


115. I once asked Daniel Kahnemanabout a key to making better decisions. "You should talk to people whodisagree with you and you should talk to people who are not in the sameemotional situation you are," he said. Try this before making your nextinvestment decision.


116. No one on the Forbes 400list of richest Americans can be described as a "perma-bear." Anatural sense of optimism not only healthy, but vital.


117. Economist Alfred Cowles dugthrough forecasts a popular analyst who "had gained a reputation forsuccessful forecasting" made in The Wall Street Journal in the early1900s. Among 90 predictions made over a 30-year period, exactly 45 were rightand 45 were wrong. This is more common than you think.


118. Since 1900, the S&P 500has returned about 6.5% per year, but the average difference between any year'shighest close and lowest close is 23%. Remember this the next time someonetries to explain why the market is up or down by a few percentage points. Theyare basically trying to explain why summer came after spring.


119. How long you stay investedfor will likely be the single most important factor determining how well you doat investing.


120. A money manager's amount ofexperience doesn't tell you much. You can underperform the market for an entirecareer. Many have.


121. A hedge fund once describedits edge by stating, "We don't own one Apple share. Every hedge fund ownsApple." This type of simple, contrarian thinking is worth its weight ingold in investing.


122. Take two investors. One isan MIT rocket scientist who aced his SATs and can recite pi out to 50 decimalplaces. He trades several times a week, tapping his intellect in an attempt tooutsmart the market by jumping in and out when he's determined it's right. Theother is a country bumpkin who didn't attend college. He saves and investsevery month in a low-cost index fund come hell or high water. He doesn't careabout beating the market. He just wants it to be his faithful companion. Who'sgoing to do better in the long run? I'd bet on the latter all day long."Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy witha 130 IQ," Warren Buffett says. Successful investors know theirlimitations, keep cool, and act with discipline. You can't measure that.

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